In January 2022, China exported 25,946 metric tons of methyl ethyl ketone (MEK), with an export value of 35.336 million USD and an average price of 1,361.89 USD per ton.This represented a year-on-year increase of 40.47% and a substantial month-on-month surge of 93.61%.January 2022 marked a record monthly high for China’s MEK exports in recent years, significantly exceeding the previous monthly peak recorded in June of the previous year.However, MEK exports in February dropped sharply to only 4,371 tons.Overall, China’s MEK export performance remained robust in early 2022.

Data source: Jinlianchuang

January saw exceptionally strong MEK export performance.During the period, the domestic MEK market was relatively stable.Planned new capacity expansions at major production facilities in Shandong weighed on market sentiment, although production at key enterprises remained generally steady.Meanwhile, relatively high market prices dampened buyer enthusiasm, and domestic demand weakened ahead of the Spring Festival holiday, leading manufacturers to show stronger willingness to export.

Overseas, two Japanese production units announced planned shutdowns.Rising international prices and crude oil costs boosted market confidence, driving a sharp increase in foreign demand.Purchases of Chinese MEK grew rapidly, especially in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia.Compared with December data:

  • Exports to South Korea increased by 10,832 tons, up 275.62%
  • Exports to Vietnam increased by 3,496 tons, up 748.61%
  • Exports to India increased by 1,951 tons, up 130%
  • Exports to Indonesia increased by 860 tons, up 74.65%

Against this backdrop, China’s MEK exports reached a new high in January.

In February, China’s MEK exports continued to be directed mainly to neighboring Asian countries, but export volumes contracted sharply.Domestic operating rates at MEK facilities were relatively stable: Ningbo Jinfa restarted production in mid-month, while Hunan Zhongchuang faced prolonged unstable operation and suspended production on February 25.Units in Hebei and Taizhou remained offline throughout the month.

In early February, slow logistics and delayed vessel arrivals immediately after the Spring Festival caused tight market supply.Supported by soaring crude oil prices, domestic MEK prices edged higher, but follow‑through buying was weak and prices gradually declined.Nevertheless, market participants maintained a generally positive outlook and held firm inventories, limiting downward price pressure and easing factory sales concerns.

Internationally, the positive news of planned Japanese unit shutdowns had already been priced in.Crude oil and international MEK prices stabilized after rising.With domestic MEK prices at recent highs, foreign buyers lacked sustained demand in February, resulting in a sharp contraction in MEK exports.

Looking ahead, China’s MEK export outlook is expected to strengthen again in March.First, domestic pandemic restrictions constrained logistics and demand, while overall operating rates remained relatively high, encouraging companies to increase exports to ease domestic supply pressure and support local market prices.Second, amid a prolonged bullish trend, domestic MEK prices have risen to their highest level in a decade, notably above alternative products such as MIBK.Given expected weakness in domestic demand, export incentives remain strong.

In addition, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict created a supply shortage in Europe, pushing European MEK prices sharply higher and opening a significant arbitrage window compared with domestic prices.As of March 23:

  • MEK price in Rotterdam: 3,305 USD per ton
  • MEK price in Northwest Europe: 3,101 EUR per ton

Relatively lower domestic prices favored export activities.

Finally, an earthquake struck Japan in mid-March, prompting scheduled shutdowns of Japanese MEK facilities.Tighter global supply will provide substantial support, and international buyers are expected to increase their purchases of Chinese MEK.In summary, China’s MEK exports are forecast to return to high levels in March.

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